How to Bet on AFL: A Complete Guide to Markets, Odds and Strategy

1 How AFL Betting Works

The AFL season runs from March to September, with 18 teams competing across 23 rounds each. The top eight clubs then battle it out in the finals for the premiership. Every match in the season is available to bet on, with each offering several different markets.

Alongside regular match betting, bookmakers also offer season-long futures markets. These include bets on the premiership winner, the winner of the Brownlow Medal, and which team will finish last.

AFL is the most-bet-on sport in Australia. The high volume of money in AFL markets means prices are generally competitive, and punters can improve their returns by comparing prices across multiple bookmakers.

2 Head-to-Head Betting

The head-to-head market is the simplest available in AFL. You pick the team you think will win the match. It is the ideal starting point for anyone new to AFL betting.

The team priced below $2.00 is the favourite to win the match. The higher the price, the less likely the bookmaker considers that team to win. This market is the best starting point for beginners because the only variable is the teams involved.

Factors that affect head-to-head odds

Head-to-head prices are based on a range of factors. These include the form of each team over the last few rounds, the health of their players, travel distance, weather conditions, and how much the match matters to each club's season. Prices can move from their opening lines as money comes in, so comparing odds across bookmakers before you bet is worthwhile.

3 Line Betting

Line betting adds a points handicap to the match to create more balanced odds between two uneven teams. The favourite gives points to the underdog, meaning the underdog starts the bet with an advantage. The bet settles on the adjusted score once the handicap is applied.

Prices in line betting markets are usually around $1.90 on both sides, as the handicap is set to make the outcomes roughly equal. This can be useful when one team is a heavy favourite at short odds in the head-to-head.

When line betting makes sense

If a heavy favourite is expected to win by a large margin, the line market can offer better odds than the head-to-head. It is also an alternative to backing the underdog to win outright, since the underdog on the line can pay at better returns with a more manageable margin requirement.

For a deeper look at handicap betting across multiple sports, see our Asian handicap guide.

4 Over/Under Total Points

The over/under market focuses on the combined score of both teams rather than the result. The bookmaker sets a total points line, and you bet whether the combined score will go over or under that number.

AFL scores are higher than most other football codes in Australia, which makes total points markets popular. Combined scores in a match typically range from 150 to 180 points, so the total points line is usually set in that range.

Using total points when the winner is hard to call

When two evenly matched teams meet and the head-to-head price is close to even on both sides, punters may prefer betting on the total points scored. If both teams have a similar reputation for attacking play, the over/under market can be a better option than the head-to-head.

Weather can have a significant effect on AFL matches. In southern cities like Melbourne and Adelaide, wet and windy conditions can suppress scoring. In drier, more sheltered venues like Manuka Oval in Canberra, conditions tend to produce higher combined scores.

5 Same Game Multis

A same game multi (SGM) lets you combine several market selections from a single AFL match into one bet. Each selection is called a leg. All legs must win for the bet to pay out. The more legs in the SGM, the higher the potential return.

Adding more legs increases the combined odds but also makes the bet harder to win. A three-leg SGM might return around $15 to $30. A five-leg SGM can exceed $100. Bookmakers may apply a discount when legs are positively correlated to each other.

Using SGMs effectively

SGMs work best for punters with specific match knowledge. Understanding a player's recent form or a team's tendencies in certain conditions allows you to target better value. Keep your SGM to three legs at most if winning probability matters to you. For a full strategy guide on building same game multis, see our same game parlay guide.

6 Player Prop Bets

Player prop markets let punters bet on individual player performance rather than the game result. AFL offers more player prop markets than most other sports in Australia, reflecting the wide range of statistics tracked in the game.

Common AFL player prop markets

Disposals over/under: Bookmakers set a disposals line for a specific player based on their recent averages. A midfielder may be set at 25.5 disposals. You bet whether they record 26 or more (over) or 25 or fewer (under) during the match.

First goalscorer: Which player kicks the first goal of the match. This market carries high odds because there are 44 players on the field at any time. Forwards who line up in attacking positions at the start of the game tend to be the most common targets.

Anytime goalscorer: A bet on a specific player kicking at least one goal during the match. The odds are lower than first goalscorer, but the player just needs to score at any point in the game.

Most disposals: Which player records the most touches in the entire match. Midfielders who win a lot of ball tend to dominate this market. Odds depend on which player is expected to control the midfield contest.

7 Futures and Season Markets

Futures markets settle at the end of the season rather than after a single match. They tend to offer higher odds than regular match markets, and bets can run for months before settling. Markets open before the start of the AFL season.

Premiership winner

The premiership winner is the most popular AFL futures market. Prices are available before the season starts and shift throughout the year as clubs gain or lose form. Taking a premiership bet early on a team you believe in typically offers better value, as the price shortens once that team proves their form.

Brownlow Medal

The Brownlow Medal is awarded to the best and fairest player in the AFL, as voted by field umpires after each match. Midfielders who accumulate high disposal counts and play in winning teams tend to dominate the count. Brownlow markets open before the season and are available to bet on in advance.

Coleman Medal

The Coleman Medal is awarded to the AFL's leading goalkicker for the season. Forwards who stay injury-free and play in high-scoring teams are the strongest contenders. Typically, a player needs 15 or more goals across the season to be competitive.

8 AFL Betting Strategy

Picking winners is only part of AFL betting. Long-term results depend as much on discipline and process as on game knowledge.

Research team form and injuries

Published injury lists are available from each club's official website. A team missing its captain or a key goalscorer can shift the betting price considerably. Bookmakers may be slow to adjust if the injury news breaks late in the week before the match.

Factor in weather

In wet and windy conditions, AFL scores tend to be lower because kicking accurately for goal becomes harder. High-scoring teams are particularly affected when playing at exposed venues in poor weather. Over/under total points markets are the most sensitive to weather forecasts.

Shop for the best odds

Holding accounts at multiple bookmakers and comparing prices before each bet is the most reliable way to improve returns. A price of $2.10 instead of $1.90 on a bet you place regularly adds up to a significant difference over a season. Odds comparison tools update in near real-time and cut out the manual work of checking each site.

Our AFL betting sites comparison covers the bookmakers that consistently offer competitive pricing on AFL markets for Australian players.

Set a budget and stick to it

Decide before the season how much you are prepared to lose on AFL betting and divide that amount by the number of rounds in the season. Never increase your stake when you are losing. Chasing losses leads to bigger losses and removes the reasoning that made your original bet worth placing.